Note from the field, number two. The scenery has changed. A new economic order is taking shape, borders are hardening, and one reflex is spreading from country to country, from organization to organization: pull back, protect, keep it for yourself.
Let me be direct with you. You do not decide Washington's tariffs or Beijing's countermeasures. But you do decide what you make of your resources, your dependencies and your skills while the world closes in. The real question is not "will the retreat stop?". It is "who stays in control when everything turns inward?". We do not endure the wave. We take back the wheel. We stay In-Control.
A virus of self-preservation
The "America First" doctrine came back with force in 2025. On April 2, the administration of the 47th U.S. president set a universal 10% tariff, with surcharges climbing as high as 50% depending on the partner. China took the full blow: duties on its exports to the United States surged through the autumn, before a partial truce was negotiated at the Xi-Trump meeting of October 30, 2025. By early 2026, China remains the most heavily taxed partner, at around 34% in effective duties.
But the most telling part is how unstable these barriers are themselves: in February 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the president could not rely on the emergency economic law (IEEPA) to impose part of these tariffs. Even the wall some were counting on is not solid.
And the mindset is contagious. Canada and Mexico retaliated, China filed a complaint at the World Trade Organization. Every nation now favors its own companies, its own workers, its own resources. This is not just a trade quarrel: it is a state of mind that spreads, pushing everyone to turn inward.
First shock: dependence
When borders harden, your first weakness is whatever you depend on without having chosen it: a single supplier, a single country, a single funder. Supply chains wobble, costs spike, and the most exposed organizations are the ones with only one way in.
Second shock: funding dries up
When a major power cuts its aid or its subsidies, others follow. NGOs, development agencies and multinationals find themselves short of funds. One cut triggers another: projects stop, jobs vanish, whole models are restructured. The organizations that lived on international partnerships are the most fragile, because they never planned for the day the tap is turned off.
Third shock: jobs and skills
The labor market takes the pressure from both ends. On one side, restructurings threaten the sectors tied to global trade: industry, logistics, agriculture. On the other, migration restrictions create shortages in health care, construction and hospitality. In the middle, a risk of stagflation: prices rise while growth stalls.
And automation is speeding things up. The World Economic Forum's "Future of Jobs 2025" report projects 170 million jobs created and 92 million destroyed by 2030, a net gain of 78 million. At the same time, 41% of employers plan to cut headcount where AI automates, while 77% are betting on reskilling their teams. The message is clear: what protects you is not your job title, it is your ability to learn fast.
The In-Control method: four moves
The model of open globalization (open markets, diversified funding, mobile labor) is crumbling. Surviving is not enough, you have to steer. Four moves, to observe in this order.
Echoes of the past: 2008, 2021, today
This moment rhymes with the past without being the same. The 2008 crisis was born of financial excess. The 2021 shock came from a virus. Today, the upheaval is deliberate: it comes from political and geopolitical choices. Less a collapse than a recomposition.
The difference is control. This time, governments hold the reins, for better or worse. That leaves room for hope if it is played well, but it makes everything unpredictable, swinging with the political winds. All the more reason not to entrust your stability to hands you do not control.
Your In-Control score
You have tested your reflexes shock by shock: your dependence, your reserves, your capacity to adapt. Now it is time to assemble the full picture. Are you still at the controls, or is the general retreat already driving you without you noticing? Nobody is watching, except you.
Keep your strength
Here is my conviction: crises wake up ingenuity. The pandemic gave birth to digital giants, 2008 reformed the banks, and this retreat could spark a local renaissance. Picture shorter, more sustainable chains, growth rooted in real places. This is not an abstract dream: for 2026, ASCM already describes a shift from "China + 1" toward "anywhere but China," with new hubs emerging in Mexico, Africa, Vietnam and Eastern Europe. The ground is moving, and Africa is in the game.
Do not look at what you are losing, look at what you have. Take inventory of everything that can still feed your strength: your skills, your relationships, your cash, your reputation. Keep it close. It is from that strength that you will rebuild.
The world is closing in. You keep the wheel. Stay In-Control.
